Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting

Abstract

Owing to integrating photovoltaic solar systems into power networks, accurate prediction of solar irradiance plays an increasingly significant role in electric energy planning and management. However, the existing hybrid models ignore the influence of other factors except for the irradiance time series and adopt a single branch independent network structure, which may lead to decrease prediction accuracy. In this paper, a novel multivariate hybrid deep neural model named WPD–CNN–LSTM-MLP for 1-h-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is proposed. The novel WPD–CNN–LSTM-MLP model is based on a sophisticated multi-branch hybrid structure with multi-variable inputs, which the multi-branch hybrid structure combines wavelet packet decomposition (WPD), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and multi-layer perceptron network (MLP), and the multi-variable inputs include hourly solar irradiance and three climate variables, namely: temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and their combination. The new model extracts the inherent characteristics of multi-layer inputs sufficiently, overcomes the shortcomings of traditional models, and achieves more accurate forecasting results. The performance of the model is verified by actual data from Denver, Clark, and Folsom, the United States. Comparative studies of traditional individual back propagation neural network, support vector machine, recurrent neural network, LSTM, the climatology–persistence reference forecasts method and the proposed LSTM-MLP model, CNN-LSTM-MLP model, and WPD–CNN–LSTM model reveal that the proposed WPD–CNN–LSTM-MLP deep learning model has better prediction accuracy in hourly irradiance forecasting.