Hybrid conjoint analysis: An estimation probe in new venture decisions

Abstract

How venture capitalists select start-ups for financing has been an interesting topic for many researchers and practitioners. The underlying assumption is that people who make money investing in new businesses by assessing the proposals should be experienced enough to distinguish losers from winners. Our research study tested three models (self-explicated, conjoint and a hybrid—comprising the two previous ones—conjoint) in order to find out: 1. if these models could be applied to venture capital decision making and if so 2. to demonstrate the potential of conjoint analysis as a practical research method. 3. To test whether or not the characteristics of the entrepreneur, the product and the market replicate the venture capital decision. This research study confirms what normative literature on decision-making emphasizes: that in the first stage of an evaluation (screening), venture capitalists focus on a small subset of criteria in a non-compensatory process (i.e., an unacceptable value on one criterion cannot be offset by a high value of another one). The important criteria in this phase appear to be the entrepreneur's experience and the existence of a prototype for some decision-makers or unique features of the product for others. The screening step is more judgemental than analytic. In a second stage (the evaluation phase), however, venture capitalists end a detailed examination (due diligence process) by choosing the most preferred ventures through processes approximating compensatory rules; that is, a low but acceptable value on one criterion can be compensated by a high value on another. The most important criteria identified by the research in this second stage are criteria found in the previous stage, product gross profit margin and patent. Our research demonstrates agreement among venture capitalists in terms of one criterion to evaluate research proposals: managerial experience. As to the rest of the attributes tested, there was variation in the weights assigned to them. The findings of this pilot study also confirm the applicability of conjoint analysis as a research method in venture capital decision. The approach helps shed light on the decision rules applied, and permits the testing of previously researched criteria for predictive validity. The method has the advantage of retaining individual preferences and clustering them around venture capitalists' demographic and psychographic backgrounds (i.e., years of experience, type of education, life-style, and the like) or other types of information such as venture fund policies (size of the investment, type of industry, etc.). The major implication of the study for entrepreneurs is the importance of previous experience in the industry where they expect to develop their ventures, and a deep knowledge of the product (advantages over competition, technical, production, and cost feasibility) they are to produce and market. These are the factors that have the greatest influence on venture capitalists' evaluation of such projects.