Hurricane Track Prediction Using a Statistical Ensemble of Numerical Models

Abstract

Abstract A new statistical ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone tracks is presented. The system is based on a statistical analysis of the annual performance of numerical track prediction models, assuming that their position errors are systematic and depend on storm structure, location, and motion. For a given tropical cyclone advisory and given model forecasts of a particular storm at any base date and time, the statistical analysis of the model performances in the year preceding the base date and time can be used to produce a track prediction and geographical maps of strike probability distributions at all prediction times. The statistical ensemble prediction system was developed using tropical cyclone advisories, model predictions, and best-track positions of all Atlantic hurricane seasons between 1996 and 2000. Track predictions were carried out in each individual year between 1997 and 2000. The 24-, 48-, and 72-h mean position errors, averaged over the whole time period 1997–2000, were foun...