Hurricane potential intensity from an energetics point of view

Abstract

AbstractThis article describes an approach to hurricane potential intensity with a model that considers total kinetic energy balance within a hurricane. The major kinetic energy source and sink are the kinetic energy converted from sea surface entropy flux and the surface dissipation, respectively, but the conversion efficiency is radius‐dependent in this model. Also, the internal conversion due to convectively available potential energy (CAPE) as a source is considered. In contrast to previous potential intensity models, energy balance in the entire hurricane is used to get its steady state. With this model, the roles of environmental sea surface temperature (SST), CAPE and some features of the hurricane itself in determining hurricane potential intensity are investigated. The results indicate that existence of CAPE may lead to the steady state (or potential intensity) appreciably different from the otherwise surface entropy flux conversion and surface dissipation balanced state, although CAPE contribution to kinetic energy generation is usually much smaller than that of the surface flux. It is interesting that hurricane potential intensity seems less dependent on the underlying SST than was shown with previous theoretical models. The results also suggest that hurricane size may affect its potential intensity in that larger‐sized hurricanes tend to have higher potential intensities. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society