Hurricane hazard modeling: The past, present, and future

Abstract

Hurricane hazard modeling has become a commonly used tool for assessing hurricane risk. The type of hurricane risk considered varies with the user and can be an economic risk, as in the case of the insurance and banking industries, a wind exceedance risk, a flood risk, etc. The most common uses for hurricane hazard models today include: (i) Simulation of wind speed and direction for use with wind tunnel test data to estimate wind loads vs. return period for design of structural systems and cladding. (ii) Estimation of design wind speeds for use in buildings codes and standards. (iii) Coastal hazard risk modeling (e.g. storm surge elevations and wave heights vs. return period). (iv) Insurance loss estimation (e.g. probable maximum losses, average annual losses). This paper presents an overview of the past and present work in hurricane modeling. The wind model is the key input to each of the examples presented above and is the focus herein. We discuss the evolution and current state of wind field modeling, modeling uncertainties, and possible future directions of the hurricane risk modeling process.