Abstract
Assessment of hurricane flooding risk is an essential component for effective coastal planning and engineering design. Existing methods for evaluating extreme-value flood statistics traditionally assume that flood conditions are stationary, such that historical information represents future conditions. However, dynamic changes in the environment, specifically changing sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity and rate of occurrence, mean that future flooding risk will not be adequately represented by historical conditions alone. In this paper, an approach is proposed for incorporating future sea level and hurricane climate projections into extreme-value flood probabilities and risk assessment.
Highlights
AND BACKGROUND Here, the influence of long-term climate change on hurricane flooding statistics is considered
While hurricanes are expected to intensify with global warming, recent studies concluded that the rate of occurrence of hurricanes might diminish with global warming
We present a method for assessing future hurricane flooding and damage statistics, with sample results shown for the Houston-Galveston region along the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline
Summary
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Here, the influence of long-term climate change on hurricane flooding statistics is considered. We present a method for assessing future hurricane flooding and damage statistics, with sample results shown for the Houston-Galveston region along the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline.
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