Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Abstract

In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the coastal area of the states of Yucatan and Campeche (Mexico). Based on climatology, more than 39,900 hypothetical hurricanes covering all possible directions of motion were synthesized. The storm intensity (category), forward speed, radius of maximum winds and the tide anomaly were varied for each hypothetical track. According to these scenarios, the potential storm surge and associated inundation threat were computed. Subsequently, the Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and the Maximum of the MEOWs (MOMs) were calculated to assess the flood hazard induced by tropical cyclones under varying conditions. In addition, for each MOM, the socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were taken into account in order to assess the hurricane flood risk for the states of Yucatan and Campeche. Results show that the most vulnerable areas are the surroundings of Terminos lagoon, Campeche City and its neighboring areas in the state of Campeche. For Yucatan, the towns located in the Northwest (Celestun, Hunucma and Progreso) and the eastern part of the state presented the highest risk values. The methodology used in this study can be applied to other coastal zones of Mexico as well as places with similar attributes. Furthermore, the MEOW and MOM are very useful as a decision-making tool for prevention, preparedness, evacuation plans, mitigation of the flood hazard and its associated risk, and also for insurance companies.