Hurdling through the great recession: winners and losers among post-communist EU countries in pro-poor growth

Abstract

The paper aims to evaluate the distribution of economic growth between poor and non-poor in the eight post-communist countries which joined the European Union in 2004. As if the integration process did not pose its own challenges, the overall situation was complicated by the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis in 2009. To address these factors, three periods are examined: the pre-crisis period of 2005–2009, the crisis period of 2010–2013, and the entire period spanning 2005–2013. The methodology applied in analyzing the pattern of pro-poor growth is based on the “poverty equivalent growth rate” approach. Additional insight was obtained from ranking the countries examined based on this growth rate as well as related measures. Interestingly, Hungary and Slovenia appear to be more prone to propagation of growth changes to the incomes of the poor relative to the other countries examined. This had negative repercussions for the poor as negative growth was a hallmark of the crisis period. Our results also show that the substantial growth during the post-accession period up until the crisis was not pro-poor in an absolute sense in any of the countries under examination.