Abstract
Temporal mismatches among plants and pollinators, driven by climate change, are considered a potential cause of population declines of these mutualists. However, field studies demonstrating population declines as a result of climate-driven phenological mismatches are uncommon, and the extent to which mismatches will be a problem in the future remains unclear. We revisit predicted consequences of climate-driven phenological mismatch in plant-pollinator systems by identifying nine previously-applied assumptions that are violated or insufficiently understood in real systems. Briefly, the assumptions are: (1) Dates of first-flowering (DFF) or dates of first activity (DFA) correctly describe phenology, and disparities between DFF and DFA represent the magnitude of mismatch. (2) “Optimal” matches are measured correctly. (3) Advancement of DFF or DFA will be the primary phenological change in the future. (4) Future phenological shifts will be independent for each species. (5) All plant-pollinator interactions are equally effective. (6) Populations of plants and pollinators are limited by mutualistic interactions. Some previous models have also assumed that the effects of future mismatches will not be influenced by (7) emergence of novel interactions, (8) competition or facilitation from altered co-flowering and co-flight, and (9) phenotypic plasticity and rapid adaptive evolution of phenology. Those assumptions affect the direction, extent, and accuracy of predicted consequences of future phenological mismatch. In discussing them, we identify important topics for future research in pollination ecology.
Highlights
A “pollination crisis” is reducing diversity and abundance of plants and pollinators, and having important economic impacts on agriculture (e.g. Steffan-Dewenter et al 2005; Berenbaum et al 2007)
Some previous models have assumed that the effects of future mismatches will not be influenced by (7) emergence of novel interactions, (8) competition or facilitation from altered co-flowering and co-flight, and (9) phenotypic plasticity and rapid adaptive evolution of phenology
A concern is that rapid climate change will cause mismatches to arise in the timing of seasonal interactions between pollinators and their host plants (Bazzaz 1990), and that those mismatches will have severe demographic consequences for both pollinators and plants (Inouye et al 2000)
Summary
A “pollination crisis” is reducing diversity and abundance of plants and pollinators, and having important economic impacts on agriculture (e.g. Steffan-Dewenter et al 2005; Berenbaum et al 2007). A concern is that rapid climate change will cause mismatches to arise in the timing of seasonal interactions (phenology) between pollinators and their host plants (Bazzaz 1990), and that those mismatches will have severe demographic consequences for both pollinators and plants (Inouye et al 2000). Determining (1) the likelihood that mismatches will occur in the future as a result of climate change, and (2) the demographic impacts of mismatches, should they occur, is challenging (Rafferty et al in press). Mismatch will affect plant-pollinator interactions if “a change in interaction strength or frequency [will occur], this change is the result of climate change and...the change [will alter] the vital rates of one or more of the species involved” (Forrest & Miller-Rushing 2010)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
