Abstract
In his famous work, The Poverty of Historicism (1957), Karl Popper proved the impossibility of forecasting scientific discoveries and technical instruments. The main reason is logical. The discovery of tomorrow cannot be known today; otherwise it would not be a future one. The second reason is of a systems-theoretical nature: creative intuition includes an accidental character. The origin of ideas, like the origin of every spontaneous order, is phase transitions within the neurochemistry of the brain, and those are never deterministic processes—and therefore are unpredictable. Creativity and the outcome of it, novel ideas, can not be subjected to forecasting on account of the inherent stochastic elements.
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