Humanitarian Response and Countermeasures for North Korean Contingency

Abstract

This paper examines possible social consequences of North Korean contingency and the potential impact on state relations. It suggests the appropriate measures for stabilizing crisis that are also conducive to promoting unification. In a contingency situation, a satisfactory humanitarian response by South Korea will be instrumental in securing the popular support of North Koreans and thus very important to advancing the efforts to realize unification. This paper, therefore, argues first that humanitarian crisis and social disorder will need to be addressed in the initial stage of the contingency. It then looks at the possible responses and situations that may surface within the North Korean state as the contingency situation develops, including dissident actions and behavior, escape and exile, and internal conflict among the elites and the military. It also evaluates the potential impact of the crisis on inter-Korean relations and on neighboring states, including South Korea and the Unites States. Finally, this paper suggests five measures necessary for stabilizing the contingency situation, which are helpful in preparing for the long-term goal of Korean unification within the context of US-ROK cooperation.