Human-Infrastructure Interactional Dynamics: Simulating COVID-19 Pandemic Regime Shifts

Abstract

When subject to disruptive events, the dynamics of human-infrastructure interactions can absorb, adapt, or, in a more abrupt manner, undergo substantial change. These changes are commonly studied when a disruptive event perturbs the physical infrastructure. Infrastructure breakdown is, thus, an indicator of the tipping point, and possible regime shift, in the human-infrastructure interactions. However, determining the likelihood of a regime shift during a global pandemic, where no infrastructure breakdown occurs, is unclear. In this study, we explore the dynamics of human-infrastructure interactions during the global COVID-19 pandemic for the entire United States and determine the likelihood of regime shifts in human interactions with six different categories of infrastructure. Our results highlight the impact of state-level characteristics, executive decisions, as well as the extent of impact by the pandemic as predictors of either undergoing or surviving regime shifts in human-infrastructure interactions.