Abstract
We use a combination of extreme value statistics, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyse the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, extreme-value modelling leads to the conclusion that constant force of mortality beyond 108 years describes the data well and there is no evidence of differences between countries and cohorts. These findings are consistent with use of a Gompertz model and with previous analysis of the International Database on Longevity and suggest that any physical upper bound for the human lifespan is so large that it is unlikely to be approached. Power calculations make it implausible that there is an upper bound below 130 years. There is no evidence of differences in survival between women and men after age 108 in the Italian data and the International Database on Longevity, but survival is lower for men in the French data.
Highlights
IntroductionSolid empirical understanding of human mortality at extreme age is important as one basis for research aimed at finding a cure for ageing (described, e.g. in [1]), and is an element in the hotly debated and societally important question whether the current increase in expected lifespan in developed countries, of about three months per year since at least 1840 [2], can continue
Solid empirical understanding of human mortality at extreme age is important as one basis for research aimed at finding a cure for ageing, and is an element in the hotly debated and societally important question whether the current increase in expected lifespan in developed countries, of about three months per year since at least 1840 [2], can continue
The parameter stability plots in the lower panels of figure 2 show a small increase in estimated shape with the threshold; table 1 shows that there is a compensating decrease in the estimated scale parameters
Summary
Solid empirical understanding of human mortality at extreme age is important as one basis for research aimed at finding a cure for ageing (described, e.g. in [1]), and is an element in the hotly debated and societally important question whether the current increase in expected lifespan in developed countries, of about three months per year since at least 1840 [2], can continue. The limit to human lifespan, if any, attracts considerable media attention Einmahl et al [6] analyse data on mortality in The Netherlands and conclude that ‘there is a finite upper limit to the lifespan’ for both men and women.
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