Human Mobility Prediction Using Sparse Trajectory Data

Abstract

Human mobility prediction techniques are instrumental for many important applications including service management and city planning. Previous work looks at the inherent patterns of a user's historical trajectories to predict his/her future location. Such method suffers when only a small number of historical locations are available, which is a main challenge for mobility prediction on sparse trajectory datasets. In this paper, we propose a multi-task learning based algorithm to predict users' mobility by learning the mobility behaviors of different users at the same time and exploiting the similarities among them to overcome the sparse issue and improve the prediction performance. Specifically, we use a Bayesian mixture model to describe users' spatio-temporal mobility patterns, where we introduce a novel von Mises distribution to model the temporal distribution of users' mobility to better preserve its continuity across time. Then, we use the hierarchical Dirichlet process to perform joint prediction of all users' mobility. This model allows us to leverage similar mobility patterns among users to improve the prediction performance for users with sparse trajectory data. We conduct extensive evaluations using data collected by a cellular network operator and mobile applications. Our evaluations show that our algorithms achieve prediction accuracy of 53.9% on average and 73.2% for users with high-quality mobility data, with the performance gap over 8.7% on average compared with the state-of-the-art algorithms, demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.