Human Mobility Prediction Based on Trend Iteration of Spectral Clustering

Abstract

Human mobility prediction is crucial for epidemic control, urban planning, and traffic forecasting systems. We observe urban traffic flow prediction has a hierarchical structure, in which human mobility prediction should consider not only the spatial and the temporal relationships, but also the high-level mobility trend between individuals and regions. In this paper, we propose a human mobility clustering algorithm based on trend iteration of spectral clustering (TISC) to incorporate the high-level human mobility trend between individuals and regions. We integrate our TISC clustering algorithm with two existing urban traffic flow predictive models: namely, deep spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) and deep spatio-temporal 3D network (ST-3DNet). By adapting our TISC clustering algorithm, the prediction accuracy of both algorithms has been improved significantly (30.96 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\%$</tex-math></inline-formula> for ST-ResNet and 24.66 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\%$</tex-math></inline-formula> for ST-3DNet). We also compare the TISC-based predictive framework with 26 state-of-the-art human mobility prediction algorithms. We observe that our TISC algorithm considerably outperforms all 26 methods, reducing the predictive error from <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$6.93\%$</tex-math></inline-formula> to 69.55 <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\%$</tex-math></inline-formula> .