Abstract
As many U.S. states implemented stay-at-home orders beginning in March 2020, anecdotes reported a surge in alcohol sales, raising concerns about increased alcohol use and associated ills. The surveillance report from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism provides monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from a subset of states, allowing an investigation of this potential increase in alcohol use. Meanwhile, anonymized human mobility data released by companies such as SafeGraph enables an examination of the visiting behavior of people to various alcohol outlets such as bars and liquor stores. This study examines changes to alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during COVID-19 and their geographic differences across states. We find major increases in the sales of spirits and wine since March 2020, while the sales of beer decreased. We also find moderate increases in people's visits to liquor stores, while their visits to bars and pubs substantially decreased. Noticing a significant correlation between alcohol sales and outlet visits, we use machine learning models to examine their relationship and find evidence in some states for likely panic buying of spirits and wine. Large geographic differences exist across states, with both major increases and decreases in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits.
Highlights
When the pandemic of COVID-19 quickly spread in the United States in March 2020, stay-athome orders were implemented in many states to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus
We examined the human mobility data and alcohol sales data together in order to answer RQ3: How did the relation between alcohol sales and outlet visits change since March 2020? How did this relation change vary across different geographic areas and over time? Given the natural link between alcohol sales and outlet visits, we built three types of machine learning models to examine the relation between these two types of data and how that relation changed in response to COVID-19
Based on the optimized random forest (RF) models that achieved the best performance, our result showed that the relation between alcohol sales and outlet visits might have changed in a variety of ways, some of which are captured by our trained model, while others are not
Summary
When the pandemic of COVID-19 quickly spread in the United States in March 2020, stay-athome orders were implemented in many states to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus. As millions of Americans were confined at home, a combination of factors, including the fear of contracting the disease, social isolation, job loss, and the uncertain future, created a facilitating environment for increased problematic alcohol use [1]. Anecdotes from various sources suggested a surge in alcohol sales as the pandemic began [2,3,4]. Some early investigations suggested an increase in alcohol use during COVID-19 shutdowns [5], and alcohol was classified. Geographic differences in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during COVID-19 mobility data are from SafegGraph, and one can request access at: https://www.safegraph.com/
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
