Human lunar return: An analysis of human lunar exploration scenarios within the upcoming decade

Abstract

Plans are currently converging towards a return of humans to the lunar surface within the upcoming decade. This return of humans to the lunar surface will utilise the Gateway as a reusable command and service module in cis-lunar space. Here, we are performing a fresh analysis of human lunar return architectures, starting with the identification of a complete set of plausible scenarios for crewed logistics from the Gateway to the lunar surface and back. In a next step, this set is evaluated with the intension in mind to identify scenarios in the 2020's. Three prominent candidate scenarios, distinct by the basic staging approach, have been identified and analysed in detail with respect to configuration design, system trades, operational aspects and the benefit each scenario is generating. With these key points in mind, the three scenarios are compared in order to identify the most suitable approach. Furthermore, a step-wise approach towards an increasingly sustainable human lunar surface campaigns is analysed and discussed. This approach introduces an increasing number of reusable elements by increasing the technological progression. It is found that a three-stage lander architecture promises a high mass efficiency and thus this approach is investigated in more detail of system engineering and requirements.