Abstract
Abstract. Several major storms pounded western Europe in January 2018, generating large damages and casualties. The two most impactful ones, Eleanor and Friederike, are analysed here in the context of climate change. Near surface wind speed station observations exhibit a decreasing trend in the frequency of strong winds associated with such storms. High-resolution regional climate models, on the other hand, show no trend up to now and a small increase in storminess in future due to climate change. This shows that factors other than climate change, which are not in the climate models, caused the observed decline in storminess over land. A large part is probably due to increases in surface roughness, as shown for a small set of stations covering the Netherlands and in previous studies. This observed trend could therefore be independent from climate evolution. We concluded that human-induced climate change has had so far no significant influence on storms like the two mentioned. However, all simulations indicate that global warming could lead to a marginal increase (0 %–20 %) in the probability of extreme hourly winds until the middle of the century, consistent with previous modelling studies. This excludes other factors, such as surface roughness, aerosols, and decadal variability, which have up to now caused a much larger negative trend. Until these factors are correctly simulated by climate models, we cannot give credible projections of future storminess over land in Europe.
Highlights
The influence of climate change on extratropical storms has been the subject of a number of studies so far (Ulbrich et al, 2009)
A more zonal flow is expected from climate projections (Haarsma et al, 2013), inducing a mean large-scale circulation more favourable to winter wind storms
While storm changes have been studied as a broad category, only few event attribution studies analysed the influence of human activities on such types of extratropical wind storms
Summary
The influence of climate change on extratropical storms has been the subject of a number of studies so far (Ulbrich et al, 2009). Attribution of extreme weather events, an emerging scientific area (Stott et al, 2016), attempts to study changes that occurred for certain classes of events with specific magnitude, spatial scale, and timescale. The link between such events and climate change is often questioned by the media and the public when they occur; even though it may not yet be mature enough for these purposes, event attribution can potentially be used for responsibility assessment when impacts and losses are present. While storm changes have been studied as a broad category, only few event attribution studies analysed the influence of human activities on such types of extratropical wind storms.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
