Abstract
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees human CO2 is only 5 percent and natural CO2 is 95 percent of the CO2 inflow into the atmosphere. The ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere must equal the ratio of the inflows. Yet IPCC claims human CO2 has caused all the rise in atmospheric CO2 above 280 ppm, which is now 130 ppm or 32 percent of today’s atmospheric CO2. To cause the human 5 percent to become 32 percent in the atmosphere, the IPCC model treats human and natural CO2 differently, which is impossible because the molecules are identical. IPCC’s Bern model artificially traps human CO2 in the atmosphere while it lets natural CO2 flow freely out of the atmosphere. By contrast, a simple Physics Model treats all CO2 molecules the same, as it should, and shows how CO2 flows through the atmosphere and produces a balance level where outflow equals inflow. Thereafter, if inflow is constant, level remains constant. The Physics Model has only one hypothesis, that outflow is proportional to level. The Physics Model exactly replicates the 14C data from 1970 to 2014 with only two physical parameters: balance level and e-time. The 14C data trace how CO2 flows out of the atmosphere. The Physics Model shows the 14 CO2 e-time is a constant 16.5 years. Other data show e-time for 12CO2 is about 4 to 5 years. IPCC claims human CO2 reduces ocean buffer capacity. But that would increase e-time. The constant e-time proves IPCC’s claim is false. IPCC argues that the human-caused reduction of 14C and 13C in the atmosphere prove human CO2 causes all the increase in atmospheric CO2. However, numbers show these isotope data support the Physics Model and reject the IPCC model. The Physics Model shows how inflows of human and natural CO2 into the atmosphere set balance levels proportional to their inflows. Each balance level remains constant if its inflow remains constant. Continued constant CO2 emissions do not add more CO2 to the atmosphere. No CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Present human CO2 inflow produces a balance level of about 18 ppm. Present natural CO2 inflow produces a balance level of about 392 ppm. Human CO2 is insignificant to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Increased natural CO2 inflow has increased the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Highlights
The U.S Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report (USGCRP) [1] claims, This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2] Executive Summary claims human emissions caused atmospheric CO2 to increase from 280 ppm in 1750, to 410 ppm in 2018, for a total increase of 130 ppm.IPCC and USGCRP claim there are “no convincing alternative explanations” other than their theory to explain the “observational evidence.”This paper presents a “convincing alternative explanation” that explains the data
IPCC agrees that human inflow is less than 5% and nature is more than 95% of the total CO2 inflow into the atmosphere
Cawley [5] argues, Lastly, the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide closely parallels the rise in anthropogenic emissions ... which would be somewhat of a coincidence if the rise were essentially natural in origin! IPCC [3] writes: Second, the observed rate of CO2 increase closely parallels the accumulated emission trends from fossil fuel combustion and from land use changes
Summary
The U.S Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report (USGCRP) [1] claims, This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2] Executive Summary claims human emissions caused atmospheric CO2 to increase from 280 ppm in 1750, to 410 ppm in 2018, for a total increase of 130 ppm. IPCC and USGCRP claim there are “no convincing alternative explanations” other than their theory to explain the “observational evidence.”. This paper presents a “convincing alternative explanation” that explains the data. Authors who conclude human CO2 increases atmospheric CO2 as a percentage of its inflow include Revelle and Suess [8], Starr [9], Segalstad [10], Jaworoski [11, 12], Beck [13], Rorsch, Courtney, and Thoenes [14], Courtney [15], Quirk [16], Essenhigh [17], Glassman [18], Salby [19,20,21,22], Humlum [23], Harde [24, 25], and Berry [26, 27]
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