Human capital and the middle-income trap revisited

Abstract

ABSTRACT Middle-income trap refers to the economic growth strategies that transition low-income countries into middle-income ones but fail to transition the middle-income countries into high-income countries. We observe the existence of a middle-income trap for upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries. We examine the reasons for the middle-income trap using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and generalized method of moments (GMM). We also explore the transformation of middle-income economies into high-income economies using logistic, probit and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) regression analyses. Random forest analysis is also used to check the robustness of the findings. BMA analysis shows that education plays an enabling role in high-income countries in determining economic growth, whereas the full potential of education is not fully utilized in middle-income countries. GMM estimations show that the education coefficient is positive and significant for high-income and middle-income countries. This implies that education plays a decisive positive role in achieving economic growth and gives a path to escape from the middle-income trap. However, the education coefficient for middle-income countries is approximately half that of high-income countries. Therefore, the findings of this study call for additional investment and focused strategies relating to human capital endowments.