Abstract
Understanding how habitat, landscape context, and human disturbance influence local species-specific deer density provides evidence informing strategic management of increasing deer populations. Across an extensive (187 km2) heterogeneous forest-mosaic landscape in eastern England, spatially explicit density surface models of roe deer Capreolus capreolus and introduced muntjac Muntiacus reevesi were calibrated by thermal imaging distance sampling (recording 1590 and 400 muntjac and roe deer groups, respectively, on 567 km of driven transects). Models related deer density to local habitat composition, recreational intensity, and deer density (roe deer models controlled for muntjac density and vice versa) at a local grain across 1162 composite transect segments, incorporating geographical coordinates accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Abundance of both species was lower in localities with more grasslands (inter-quartile, IQ, effect size: roe −2.9 deer/km2; muntjac −2.9 deer/km2). Roe abundance (mean = 7 deer/km2, SD = 6) was greater in localities with more young stands (IQ effect size, + 1.3 deer/km2) and lower at localities with more recreationists (−1.1 deer/km2). Muntjac density (mean = 21 deer/km2, SD = 10) was greater in localities with more recreationists (+ 2.4 deer/km2), with more mature (≥ 46 years) stands (+ 1.5 deer/km2), or calcareous soil (+ 7.1 deer/km2). Comparison of models incorporating candidate variables and models comprising geographical coordinates only shows candidate variables to be weak predictors of deer densities. Adapting forest management to manipulate habitat and recreational access may influence local deer densities, but only subtly: effect sizes are not sufficient to mitigate deer impacts through planting vulnerable tree crops in areas avoided by deer. Effective culling remains the most viable management option.
Highlights
Increasing deer abundance across Europe and North America has important consequences for humans and ecosystems
Averaging density surface model (DSM) across combinations of candidate variables showed that roe deer density was lower in localities containing a greater intensity of recreational activity (Figs. 2–3A), or a greater cover of grassland (Figs. 2–3B) and was higher in localities with a greater cover of young stands (Figs. 2–3C)
Roe deer density was not affected by the extent of mature stands, arable lands, calcareous soil or muntjac density (Fig. 2)
Summary
Increasing deer abundance across Europe and North America has important consequences for humans and ecosystems. European Journal of Wildlife Research (2021) 67:99 control, it is important to assess whether altering human practices could mitigate problems reducing reliance on culling (Dubois et al 2017). The local distribution and aggregation of deer and the severity of their impacts can be influenced by habitat and landscape attributes (Hurley et al 2012; Jarnemo et al 2014; Royo et al 2017; Spake et al 2020) and forest management (Reimoser and Gossow 1996; Vospernik and Reimoser 2008; Reimoser et al 2009; Redick and Jacobs 2020). If landscape context effects are sufficient, it may be possible to influence local deer activity-abundance away from patches where vulnerable, browsing-sensitive, tree crops are grown, reducing the need for lethal control (provided that any impact other than that on vegetation is absent), or it may be possible to create high deer density areas with few public recreationists, for more effective culling in terms of the effort required
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