Abstract
Explanations for the dynamics of tick-borne disease systems usually focus on changes in the transmission potential in natural enzootic cycles. These are undoubtedly important, but recent analyses reveal that they may not be quantitatively the most significant side of the interaction between infected ticks and humans. Variation in human activities that may impact inadvertently but positively on both the enzootic cycles and the degree of human exposure to those cycles, provide more robust explanations for recent upsurges in tick-borne encephalitis in Europe. This can account for long-term increases in incidence that coincided with post-soviet political independence, for small-scales spatial variation in incidence within a country, and for short-scale fluctuations such as annual spikes in incidence. The patterns of relevant human activities, typically those related to the use of forest resources, are evidently driven and/or constrained by the cultural and socio-economic circumstances of each population, resulting in contrasting national epidemiological outcomes.
Highlights
The incidence of infection with vector-borne zoonoses is inherently dynamic in space and time because transmission cycles depend on interactions between pathogens, arthropod vectors and vertebrate hosts, many of which are responsive to changing environmental conditions
In the specific case of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in central and eastern Europe, many of the recent human-induced environmental changes originated in the socio-economic effects of political transition, and appear to have had an impact on the living conditions of all partners within this disease system - virus, ticks, wildlife and humans
Because of the biology of ticks as vectors, with their long generation time and slow pace of pathogen transmission due to the long interval between feeds, changes in transmission potential operate on a longer time scale than do changes in human exposure to infected ticks
Summary
Citation style for this article: Randolph SE, on behalf of the EDEN-TBD sub-project team. Explanations for the dynamics of tick-borne disease systems usually focus on changes in the transmission potential in natural enzootic cycles These are undoubtedly important, but recent analyses reveal that they may not be quantitatively the most significant side of the interaction between infected ticks and humans. Variation in human activities that may impact inadvertently but positively on both the enzootic cycles and the degree of human exposure to those cycles, provide more robust explanations for recent upsurges in tick-borne encephalitis in Europe. This can account for long-term increases in incidence that coincided with post-soviet political independence, for small-scales spatial variation in incidence within a country, and for short-scale fluctuations such as annual spikes in incidence. The patterns of relevant human activities, typically those related to the use of forest resources, are driven and/or constrained by the cultural and socio-economic circumstances of each population, resulting in contrasting national epidemiological outcomes
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