Hull-Girder Reliability of an Aged Oil Tanker

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to assess the hull-girder reliability of an existing single-hull oil tanker after 25 years of service using a reliability method and assumptions very similar to those proposed recently by International Maritime Organization (IMO). The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance with the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS)-recommended procedure, while transfer functions are calculated using the linear strip theory. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of statistical analysis of data recorded on single-hull oil tankers. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by progressive collapse analysis and by a single-step procedure according to Common Structural Rules (CSR). The reliability analysis is performed for three states of the hull: as built ship with scantlings of the new ship, CSR corroded state with net thicknesses of the structural members according to the corrosion deduction thickness proposed by CSR and survey state with scantlings according to the thickness measurements after 25 years of service. The yearly probability of structural failure is calculated using the first-order reliability method, while sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of the results with changes of the random variables within their plausible ranges. Results of the analysis are compared with recommended target reliability indices proposed by IMO and also with the results of the reliability assessment of the new double-hull tanker. Such comparison is possible since similar reliability methods and uncertainty models are employed. Results of the analysis may have several useful applications related to the decision-making aspects of the future of an aged oil tanker.