HUBBERT ESTIMATES FROM 1956 TO 1974 OF US OIL AND GAS

Abstract

Publisher Summary This chapter highlights the Hubbert estimates of the U.S. oil and gas from 1956 to 1974. This chapter presents a comparison of the Hubbert 1956 estimate and that of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of 1961. The study of the U.S. petroleum resources represents perhaps the most important development in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during the past 15 years. Official estimates by the USGS made during the period 1961–1974 have been about 650 billion barrels of crude oil for the entire United States and adjacent continental shelves or about 600 billion barrels for the conterminous states, whereas studies from 1956 to 1974 have given consistent estimates of about 170–175 billion barrels for the lower 48 states and adjacent continental shelves. The results of a recent intensive study have given estimates of the ultimate amount of crude oil to be produced in the entire United States and adjacent continental shelves in the range of 224–301 billion barrels. In the 97 years since the initial discovery of oil, the United States had produced 52.4 billion barrels of crude oil. Contemporary estimates by leaders of the petroleum industry of the ultimate amount of oil to be produced in the lower 48 states and adjacent continental shelves ranged from about 150–200 billion barrels. The USGS estimate is equivalent to a prediction that the peak of crude oil production in the United States would not occur until about the year 2000. It is found that because the foregoing estimates were all in some measure subjective, development of a method of analysis based solely upon the publicly available data of the U.S. petroleum industry was sought.