Abstract
ABSTRACT The melting ice in the Arctic will bring two new shipping routes, which can significantly shorten the transportation distance and stimulate trade among countries in the northern hemisphere. From the strategic perspective, how to evaluate this economic impact on hub ports becomes an essential problem for some coastal cities. In this study, a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) is employed, which has two levels: On the upper level, the worldwide multiregional seaborne trade behaviour is modelled. On the lower level, the containerised flow is assigned in a concave cost shipping network to provide the shipping route and cost to the upper level. The proposed SCGE is calibrated by using real data. The results indicate a declining trend on southern hub ports and some potential hub locations in northern areas.
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