HPB SO72 - Predicting Major Intra-operative Blood Loss in Patients undergoing Liver Resection: A Machine Learning Radiomics Analysis Using Pre-Operative Liver CTs

Abstract

Abstract Background Liver resection offers the best opportunity for curing patients with colorectal metastases and is an important treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, it can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality, with one of the primary reasons being due to intra-operative blood loss which serves as an important predictor of post-operative outcomes. Predicting blood loss pre-operatively would be a powerful tool for clinicians in identifying higher risk patients. In this study, we examine whether radiomic features of the liver can predict major blood loss (>500 mls) alongside clinical and morphometric features in patients undergoing resection for colorectal metastases. Method Patient data was extracted from a prospectively maintained database of individuals undergoing resection for colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). Radiomic features were extracted from pre-operative portal venous phase CTs. The background liver was randomly segmented in a two-dimensional plane away from cancer areas. Highly correlated features were dropped, and further feature selection techniques applied. Nested cross validation was performed to train and evaluate the machine learning models with the selected radiomic, clinical, and morphometric features. Results Radiomic features (159) were extracted from 106 patients, and 10 radiomic features comprised of first order and texture features, 3 morphometric, and 4 clinical features were selected for the machine learning models. The models demonstrated a robust ability to discriminate between major and minor blood loss. The best performing machine learning model demonstrated an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.7-0.82). Other performance metrics for this model included a mean accuracy of 0.78 and an F1 Score of 0.87 on the validation data. Conclusion Pre-operative CT radiomic, clinical, and morphometric features have shown a modest ability to predict major intra-operative blood loss in patients undergoing hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastases. Further work is needed to validate and refine these models to improve performance. Additionally, we plan to incorporate data from other centres to validate our findings in further experiments to create a robust tool to guide surgical practice in this patient cohort.