Abstract
Tsunamis are among the deadliest threats to coastal areas as reminded by the recent tragic events in the Indian Ocean in 2004 and in Japan in 2011. A large number of tropical islands are indeed exposed due to their proximity to potential tsunami sources in tectonic subduction zones. For these territories, assessing tsunamis’ impact is of major concern for early warning systems and management plans. The effectiveness of inundation predictions relies, among other things, on processes engaged at the scale of the local bathymetry and topography. As part of the project C3AF that aimed to study the consequences of climate change on the French West Indies, we used the numerical model SCHISM to simulate the propagation of several potential tsunamis as well as their impacts on the Guadeloupe islands (French West Indies). Working from the findings of the most recent studies, we used the simulations of four scenarios of collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary islands. We then used FUNWAVE-TVD to simulate trans-Atlantic wave propagation until they reached the Guadeloupe archipelago where we used SCHISM to assess their final impact. Inundation is quantified for the whole archipelago and detailed for the most exposed areas. Finally, in a climate change perspective, inundation is compared for different sea levels and degrees of vegetation cover deterioration using modified friction coefficients. We then discuss the results showing that climate change-related factors would amplify the impact more in the case of smaller inundation along with model limitations and assumptions.
Highlights
Tsunamis are among the deadliest threats to coastal areas
In the Caribbean, islands populations are exposed to tsunamis hazards and significant efforts have been made in recent decades to identify potential sources since the presence of subduction zones near the Lesser Antilles creates a high potential of tsunami hazard [3,4,5,6]
The collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, Canary islands, is recognized as a serious potential threat for the Atlantic Basin and was the object of several studies ([9,10,11,12], among others). These studies present some simulations of tsunami propagation, across the Atlantic Basin, they mainly focused on propagation toward the North American, European and African coasts as well as toward some nearby islands [13,14,15] while only scarce information is given for the Lesser Antilles
Summary
Tsunamis are among the deadliest threats to coastal areas. The recent events in the Indian Ocean in 2004 or in Japan in 2011 show that the number of fatalities can dramatically increase depending on whether coastal areas and their population are prepared or not. Among the wide range of potential sources, distant sources have been considered since teletsunamis may have important consequences along the Caribbean coasts [7,8] Among such distant sources, the collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, Canary islands, is recognized as a serious potential threat for the Atlantic Basin and was the object of several studies ([9,10,11,12], among others). The collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, Canary islands, is recognized as a serious potential threat for the Atlantic Basin and was the object of several studies ([9,10,11,12], among others) These studies present some simulations of tsunami propagation, across the Atlantic Basin, they mainly focused on propagation toward the North American, European and African coasts as well as toward some nearby islands [13,14,15] while only scarce information is given for the Lesser Antilles
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