How World Bank Governance Indicators May Predict the Assessment of Elections by International Observers: Evidence From the OSCE-Region

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper outlines election monitoring in the OSCE-region, focusing on the analyses and interpretation of the aggregated findings of over 28,000 international election observers producing over 170,000 election observer report forms in 97 elections. Based on 86 elections, to which at least 100 observers were deployed, this paper reveals that: (1) the observers’ overall assessments of the voting and counting processes are strongly correlated; (2) the assessment of the voting process is rather stable, whereas the counting process deteriorated from 1996 onwards; (3) observers’ assessments of the election process tend to be more positive in societies with higher degrees of political openness and stability; and (4) particularly elections in Tajikistan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan are assessed negatively.