Abstract
Recent developments in vehicle automation, connectivity, electro-mobility and ridesharing are expected to transform urban mobility patterns and reshape cities. There is enormous uncertainty about how these technological developments, collectively referred to as the ‘technological shift in transportation’, may impact cities. This paper examines whether the technological shift in transportation will lead cities on a path to sustainability in five aspects—traffic flow, space use, energy consumption, transit and active mobility and economic affordability—through a review of 34 quantitative studies. We find that these studies backed by analytical and simulation models can provide more precise answers, and their results tend to contradict each other based on starting conditions, modelling methods and other driving factors. These driving factors fall within four categories: technological integration, policy, operations and urban planning. The interaction of these driving forces will determine if the technological shift improves transportation sustainability or is detrimental for the city in the long term.
Highlights
Mehdi NourinejadThe urban transportation sector has witnessed several technological innovations in the last two decades, notable among these being the accelerated pace of development in vehicle automation technologies [1,2]
Platform-based ride-hailing systems, developments in affordable electric vehicles with constant improvements in batteries [6,7] and growing connectivity and sensing in our environment, marked by latest developments in 5G technology [8,9], are examples of such innovations. These technologies have been variously described as a series of isolated technological disruptions [10,11], that amount to a revolution when seen as a whole [6,12,13]
A better understanding of the underlying assumptions, and the selected parameters that lead to the diverging results, can help us navigate the complex inter-relationship between planning and policy decisions and impact on transport sustainability, and expose the precariousness of quantitative models used to study futuristic technologies such as automated vehicles (AVs)
Summary
The urban transportation sector has witnessed several technological innovations in the last two decades, notable among these being the accelerated pace of development in vehicle automation technologies [1,2]. Platform-based ride-hailing systems, developments in affordable electric vehicles with constant improvements in batteries [6,7] and growing connectivity and sensing in our environment, marked by latest developments in 5G technology [8,9], are examples of such innovations. We refer to the combination of vehicle automation and other enabling technologies as the ‘technological shift in transportation’ It is as yet uncertain how the technological shift will impact cities. This review investigates how the technological shift in transportation will impact cities, whether it will set them on the path to sustainability or be detrimental to it. The second type of studies focusses on outcomes of the technological shift in limited areas, for example only emissions or congestion, using analytical approaches and simulation models, which is the focus of this paper
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