How Will the Relationship between Technological Innovation and Green Total Factor Productivity Change under the Influence of Service-Oriented Upgrading of Industrial Structure?

Abstract

Technological innovation is closely related to the green total factor productivity (GTFP), which has played an important role in China’s sustainable development goals. However, the relationship between technological innovation and GTFP may change due to the influence of economic factors such as the service-oriented upgrading of industrial structure. This study used a panel dual-threshold regression model to perform an empirical analysis in order to explore this change. We introduced dummy variables to divide the samples into three categories according to the threshold value for group regression. The results show that technological innovation will still promote GTFP under the influence of the service-oriented upgrading of industrial structure. However, this positive influence has a double threshold effect; that is, it led to a nonlinear nexus. The role of technological innovation in promoting GTFP will decrease when the service-oriented upgrading of industrial structures crosses the first and the second thresholds. Additionally, the promotion effect of technological innovation on GTFP in provinces with high levels of service-oriented upgrades of industrial structures is smaller than that in provinces with a low degree of service-oriented upgrading of industrial structures, and even tends to be 0. When the government guides technological innovation to promote the improvement of GTFP, it needs to reasonably consider the composition of industrial structure and coordinate with effective industrial policies.