Abstract
In recent decades, population growth and economic development have greatly influenced the pattern of land use/land cover (LULC) in Rwanda. Nevertheless, LULC patterns and their underlying change mechanisms under future climate conditions are not well known. Therefore, it is particularly important to explore the direction of LULC transfer in the study area, identify the factors driving the transfer of different types of LULC and their changes, and simulate future LULC patterns under future climate conditions. Based on LULC analyses of Rwanda in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015, the LULC pattern of Rwanda in the next 30 years was simulated using an LULC transition matrix, random forest sampling, the Markov chain model, and the PLUS model. The results showed that LULC change in the study area primarily comprised a decrease in forest area and expansion of cropland area, accompanied by a small increase in grassland area and an annual increase in urban land area. Prior to 2000, the LULC in Rwanda was mainly converted from forest and grassland to cropland, with the ratio being 0.72:0.28. After 2010, the LULC was mainly converted from forest to grassland and cropland, with the ratio being 0.83:0.17. Changes in forests, grasslands, and cropland are driven by multiple factors, whereas changes in wetlands, water, urban land, and unused land are more likely to be driven by a single factor. The existing trend of LULC change will continue for the next 30 years, and the future LULC pattern will exhibit a trend in which cropland area will increase in the west and grassland area will decrease, whereas grassland area will increase in the east and cropland area will decrease.
Highlights
Accepted: 7 June 2021Over the years, sustainable development in Africa has been the focus of global attention
2015), this study found that the LULC in Rwanda was dominated by the decrease in forest land and the expansion of cropland
The wetland, water and unused land areas fluctuated with the annual increase in grassland and urban land
Summary
Accepted: 7 June 2021Over the years, sustainable development in Africa has been the focus of global attention. The population density of Sub-Saharan Africa is still relatively low (43 persons/km2 ) [1], the population distribution in East Africa is extremely uneven because of the differences in topography and climate brought about by the Great Rift. The population density in some areas exceeds 300–500 persons/km2 [2,3]. The land resources in this area have been under long-term pressure from the ever-increasing population. The rapid population growth has given rise to numerous challenges, such as land degradation, loss of biodiversity, excessive deforestation, water shortages, and difficulty in ensuring food security. The emergence of these problems undoubtedly has a negative effect on sustainable development [4,5]. The expansion of cities caused by rapid economic development and the expansion of arable land caused by the rapidly expanding population occur at the expense of forests, wetlands, and grasslands [8]
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