How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study

Abstract

• Digitization and sustainability shift current industry standards. • The expert panel defines the scope of used technologies in 2040. • The last-mile delivery sector will become more segmented. • We provide managerial and policy guidance for key stakeholders. Last-mile delivery (LMD) has experienced tremendous growth in recent years, primarily driven by e-commerce. The LMD sector is characterized by strong competition, with new entrants addressing unexplored business segments, while digitization and more sustainable operations are shifting current industry standards. This paper explores upcoming trends in the LMD sector using a Delphi-based scenario study for 2040. We develop projections of future consumer behavior, delivery technologies, delivery services, and regulation to validate them by conducting a two-round Delphi study among 36 experts from the LMD industry, academia, and politics. Based on the results, three future scenarios are identified by fuzzy c-means clustering, set within the context of innovation diffusion theory and the technology acceptance model. There is expert consensus on the scope of technologies that will be used in 2040 and how consumers’ preferences may change, but the future design of delivery services is less certain. The identified scenarios provide managerial and policy guidance for logistics service providers, suppliers, municipalities, and e-commerce retailers to adapt their long-term strategies.