How will China achieve net-zero? A policy text analysis of Chinese decarbonization policies

Abstract

China is the world's largest carbon emitter and its decarbonization is of great significance to the global response to climate change. Since the Chinese government proposed its first carbon reduction target in 2005, it has achieved various decarbonization goals. This study sought to clarify China's decarbonization policies by constructing a three-dimensional policy analysis framework covering nearly 900 policy texts published from 2006 to 2021. The results enable three main conclusions. First, from 2006 to 2021, China's decarbonization policy objective shifted from building capacity for carbon emissions reduction to controlling energy consumption. Furthermore, the objective of carbon negative has a rising trend. Second, China has followed a policy trajectory of “regulation priority” and “technology-driven and industrial structure upgrading” for decarbonization. Moreover, policy instrument implementation is structurally unbalanced. Third, China's decarbonization policy instruments are highly rigid and inflexible; additionally, there are relatively few incentive policies. This study provides insights regarding the policies meant to reduce emissions and the design of decarbonization policies, which is conducive to the accumulation and transfer of decarbonization experience. 11Abbreviations: ES - energy supply side objective; EC - energy consumption side objective; CN - carbon negative objective; CB - capacity building for emission reduction objective