How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales?

Abstract

To better support wildfire predictions and risk assessment, multiple fire danger rating indices (FDRIs) have been developed but their credibility in China remains obscure. Compared with the satellite fire observations, 13 FDRIs are evaluated for the historical (2003–2021) forest fire frequency in China from four different time scales: active seasons, trends, interannual variations (IAVs) and discrimination of fire/non-fire days (DFDs). Most FDRIs effectively capture the double active seasons over Southwest China and the dominant active season over Northeast and South China but fail over the other regions. FDRIs with cloud cover perform better in capturing climatological fire seasonality. All FDRIs fail to reproduce the significant decreasing trend of forest fires speculatively due to local fire management and discordant changes in meteorological elements. Most FDRIs have the advantages of the IAVs and DFDs over Southwest China but exhibit deficiencies over the other regions. FDRIs incorporating wind speed perform best in representing both IAVs and DFDs, indicating the indispensable effect of surface wind on the interannual/daily variation of fire danger. This study provides a credible reference for utilizing FDRIs in China, as well as offers insights for developing better regional FDRIs to represent different time-scale variations.