How vector feeding preference through an infectious host relates to the seasonal transmission rates in a mathematical vector‐host model

Abstract

Vector‐borne diseases, such as leishmaniasis, dengue, malaria, and yellow fever, transmitted by microparasites show periodic fluctuations in their prevalence. The novelty of this research is to assess the relationship between the vector feeding preference for an infectious host and the annual seasonal transmission through a vector‐host mathematical model. For the first time, numerical simulations illustrate that by increasing the vector feeding preference value in the transmission dynamics, periodic fluctuations accentuate and the endemic equilibrium average increases in vector and host populations. Moreover, increasing the vector feeding preference value, the amplitude strengthens for the infectious host and vector populations. This periodic behavior shows a similar pattern with the Peruvian incidence data from 2000 to 2016 for Andean cutaneous leishmaniasis provided by the Ministry of Health of Peru (MINSA). In addition, using the Floquet theory, the time average method and the linear operator method provides for the first time that the basic reproduction number for a nonautonomous system depends explicitly on the vector feeding preference for the infectious host. The nonautonomous model system shows that is a threshold parameter for the local stability of the disease‐free periodic solution. Therefore, the vector feeding preference is an important factor that should be considered and attended to for future research. Public and veterinary health in Peru and other countries should consider the vector feeding preference for specific host to vector control.