Abstract
The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.
Highlights
In December 2019, the first cases of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) responsible for atypical pneumonia began to be registered in Wuhan (China)
We indicate the number of data points by each country
The countries that pass the two tests which means that the p-value greater than 0,05, are China, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Norway, South Africa, Singapore, Ecuador, Egypt, Ireland, France and Australia
Summary
In December 2019, the first cases of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) responsible for atypical pneumonia began to be registered in Wuhan (China). As of April 30, there are more than three million people infected individuals and there have been almost 230,000 deaths in 180 countries throughout the world. On March 11, the disease was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. There is currently no vaccine against this disease, and social distancing measures have been the main recommendation of the World Health Organization to prevent the spread of this disease. A study (written in Spanish) based on differential equations that simulate the transmission dynamics of the disease was presented from the reported cases of infection in four different countries, according to data recorded at Johns Hopkins University [1]. This paper concludes/indicates that the success of the model will depend on the quality of the data
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