How Transnational Factors Influence the Success of Ethnic, Religious and Regional Parties in 21 States

Abstract

This article explores whether ethnic, religious and regional parties in 21 advanced capitalist democracies are more likely to achieve political salience in systems which have been more exposed to the effects of globalization and post-industrialization. Globalist—localist scholars have argued that the new localism — which encompasses the post-war resurgence of decentralist political movements — is linked to intensified international interdependence and changes in production and consumption modes. Using quasi-likelihood statistical methods, we find that parties catering to particularist interests are more likely to participate in ruling coalitions to support minority governments, or to serve as the official opposition in countries that have been relatively insulated from transnational forces. While domestic economic conditions and a party's lifespan and programmatic orientation also influence the probability for success, domestic institutional arrangements such as electoral systems and the division of powers do not.