How to visualise futures studies concepts: Revision of the futures cone

Abstract

Futures studies concepts are complex and challenging to communicate and elaborate on. Visual artefacts exist to aid this process. Variants of futures cones, plausibility cones, or cones of possibilities are most common. Yet, the is a lack of scientific discussion and consistency. A review of what does exist can lead to a more coherent communication of concepts. This aids futures literacy and enables more targeted theoretical elaborations using the cone as an intermediary object. We pose the questions (1) how futures cones have been used so far to visualise concepts of futures studies and (2) how characteristics can be consolidated into a revised version. We compiled 14 representations and compared and analysed them. We identified and described 14 characteristics, including three shared between most cones, eight derived from existing ones, and three newly proposed ones, namely black swans, unknown unknowns, and exponential growth. This culminates in a revised futures cone that shall:(1)Act as a more accurate depiction of futures studies concepts in their uncertainty, ambiguity, and multiplicity.(2)Strengthen the applicability and understanding within and outside the futures studies field.(3)Refine the futures cones as a canvas for conceptual and theoretical discussions of futures studies concepts.