How to Think About Risks in US Military Innovation

Abstract

Public discourse about military innovation in the United States tends to portray dramatic changes in technology, organisation and doctrine as desirable. Innovation is a gamble that new ways of war can supplant more traditional means and methods, but it is not always worth taking. Dynamics inherent to the innovation process make it challenging for militaries to properly manage risks. Military innovation is expensive in time and money, but is more likely to occur when these resources are scarce. Also, major innovation proposals usually need to overpromise to secure the necessary support, which sets the stage for future disappointment. Accordingly, defence policymakers should avoid emphasising disruptive innovation as a silver bullet. A more prudent path is to invest in active but incremental changes, as well as resourcing robust but deliberate testing and evaluation processes that avoid rushed development.