Abstract
ABSTRACT Oil-price surges in the 1970s were not harbingers of ultimate resource depletion, but only a severe manifestation of a commodity-price cycle. Another round of excess supply and falling prices was thus inevitable. Thus far, history does not show any unambiguous long-term trend in global petroleum-production costs, but there is an inexorable tendency for energy cost to fall, whatever the limits may be to supplies of specific fuels.
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