Abstract
ABSTRACTThere are two kinds of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula: hostility between the U.S. and North Korea; hostility between the two Koreas. The nature of North Korea’s nuclear crisis is a mixture of those two hostilities. The crisis was exacerbated by misinterpretation and wishful thinking regarding its intentions. Another reason for North Korea’s nuclear crisis is the failure of the international community to speak with one voice on how to resolve it. Every country is different in its threat perceptions, national interests, and strategic calculations. In the grand scheme of things, however, the North Korea problem seems to be a strategic conflict between the U.S. and China. South Korea’s internal friction prevented any policy from being implemented effectively.It is not only unfair but unrealistic to handle the two hostilities separately. Any efforts to denuclearize North Korea should not undermine the security of South Korea. For example, the withdrawal of the U.S. forces from the Korean peninsula may be even worse for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula than a nuclear North Korea, if it keeps the current political system and there is no fundamental change in inter-Korean relations.Like the front and rear wheels in an automobile, the U.S.–North Korean dialogue and inter-Korean dialogue began to operate as two driving forces for a breakthrough in the nuclear crisis. The wheels should be aligned with a strong U.S.–R.O.K. alliance. Then a multilateral format like the Six-Party Talks can resume for a sustainable peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Highlights
Is the year 2018 going to be remembered as a historic year on the Korean Peninsula? A dramatic turnaround began to unfold in Pyongchang Winter Olympics in February 2018, secret contacts have reportedly taken place between the United States and North Korea in the latter part of 2017.1 On March 5, Kim Jong-un met with a team of special envoy of South Korean president Moon Jae-in and agreed to have an inter-Korean summit by April
He offered a talk with President Trump to CONTACT Jinwook Choi choij1307@hanmail.net College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan 1It was followed by Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s Address in which he announced the participation of North Korea in Pyongchang Olympics. 2A team of special envoy was headed by president Moon’s National Security Advisor Chung Eui-Yong, and it was joined by National Intelligence Service Chief Suh Hun
Where is the North Korean nuclear crisis headed? This paper aims to analyze the origin, the current state, and the future outlook of the North Korean nuclear crisis
Summary
Kim Jong-un surprised the world by visiting Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping on March 25, his first foreign trip ever since he took power He had five summits altogether within the span of three months: two with China on May 7 and June 19; two with South Korea on April 27 and May 26; with the U.S in Singapore on June 12. In spite of such a dramatic turnaround, few observers are truly optimistic about the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis, and it is not even certain how long it will take. What kind of role should South Korea play to resolve the current nuclear crisis?
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