Abstract
Background: In face of the continuing worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, how to reduce the transmission risk of COVID-19 more effectively is still a major public health challenge that needs to be addressed urgently.Objective: This study aimed to develop an age-structured compartment model to evaluate the impact of all diagnosed and all hospitalized on the epidemic trend of COVID-19, and explore innovative and effective releasing strategies for different age groups to prevent the second wave of COVID-19.Methods: Based on three types of COVID-19 data in New York City (NYC), we calibrated the model and estimated the unknown parameters using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.Results: Compared with the current practice in NYC, we estimated that if all infected people were diagnosed from March 26, April 5 to April 15, 2020, respectively, then the number of new infections on April 22 was reduced by 98.02, 93.88, and 74.08%. If all confirmed cases were hospitalized from March 26, April 5, and April 15, 2020, respectively, then as of June 7, 2020, the total number of deaths in NYC was reduced by 67.24, 63.43, and 51.79%. When only the 0–17 age group in NYC was released from June 8, if the contact rate in this age group remained below 61% of the pre-pandemic level, then a second wave of COVID-19 could be prevented in NYC. When both the 0–17 and 18–44 age groups in NYC were released from June 8, if the contact rates in these two age groups maintained below 36% of the pre-pandemic level, then a second wave of COVID-19 could be prevented in NYC.Conclusions: If all infected people were diagnosed in time, the daily number of new infections could be significantly reduced in NYC. If all confirmed cases were hospitalized in time, the total number of deaths could be significantly reduced in NYC. Keeping a social distance and relaxing lockdown restrictions for people between the ages of 0 and 44 could not lead to a second wave of COVID-19 in NYC.
Highlights
The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an emergent and virulent infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2
If all infected people were diagnosed from March 26, April 5, and April 15, 2020, the number of new infections on April 22 in New York City (NYC) were only [868, 2,679] and 11,353, respectively, a decrease of 98.02, 93.88, and 74.08%, respectively
When all 0– 64 age groups in NYC were released from June 8, if the contact rates made by all age groups remained below 29% of the prepandemic level, a second wave of COVID-19 could be prevented in NYC
Summary
The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an emergent and virulent infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. During the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, the Chinese government had assembled several medical teams, quickly established several mobile cabin hospitals, and conducted centralized isolation and scientific treatment for confirmed mild cases. A retrospective study among 483 patients with COVID-19 from the mobile cabin hospital in Wuhan, Wang et al showed that the mobile cabin hospital could effectively treat and isolate these patients, as well as reduce severe cases and mortality (7). Wang et al reviewed the medical records of 421 patients with COVID-19 admitted to a mobile cabin hospital in Wuhan, they showed that mobile cabin hospitals could effectively treat patients with COVID-19 who had mild symptoms and prevented the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (9). In face of the continuing worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, how to reduce the transmission risk of COVID-19 more effectively is still a major public health challenge that needs to be addressed urgently
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