How to reduce PM2.5? Perspective from a spatial autoregressive threshold panel model

Abstract

Reducing PM2.5 is an important way to ameliorate air quality. Research on driving factors of PM2.5 can provide empirical support for controlling cross-regional linkage air pollution. In this paper, we first propose a new spatial autoregressive threshold panel model and its estimation method, and then apply this methodology to study influencing elements of PM2.5 using the panel data of China during 2000–2019. The results reveal that China's provincial PM2.5 has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, and its major driving factors have significant two regimes threshold characteristic when economic development is divided into low and high levels. Specifically, (1) PM2.5 concentration in adjacent provinces increases 1% can lead to that in observing province increases 0.7741%. (2) The positive impacts of population size, energy structure and humidity on PM2.5 are significant at low economic level, and become not significant at high economic level. (3) The influence of industrialization, economic development, energy intensity, urbanization and wind speed on PM2.5 in two regimes is significantly positive, and elasticity coefficients of industrialization and economic development decrease with improvement of economic level while energy intensity, urbanization and wind speed are on the contrary. (4) The influence of possession of civil vehicles on PM2.5 changes from negative to positive as economic level increases. (5) Temperature has no significant effect on PM2.5 concentration. (6) The influence of precipitation on PM2.5 is significantly positive in regime II and not significant in regime I. Therefore, local governments should strengthen cooperation with adjacent provinces and jointly adopt effective measures to cut down on PM2.5 pollution. The provinces with low economic level should accelerate economic transformation, improve industrial production efficiency, optimize energy structure, and advocate green and low-carbon lifestyle. The provinces with high economic level need to further expand consumer demand, actively develop tertiary industries, promote new energy vehicles and vigorously develop public transport.