How to recognize the threat of social energy exclusion? Demographic and settlement determinants of distributed energy development in Polish towns and cities

Abstract

Poland is one of the fastest depopulating and aging countries in the world and has a dispersing settlement pattern. This problem is also increasingly affecting cities. As a result of these processes, the problem of providing energy for households, including for the purpose of heating apartments and houses, will increase. Against this background, the main purpose of the article is to propose a method for early identification of areas with potential energy poverty risks. This consists of identifying the sources of energy generation in 954 Polish towns and cities against the background of demographic changes, identifying the types of cities and communes with different risks in the future and, consequently, assessing the importance of social energy exclusion. The study used detailed data for cities and communes: demographic forecast 2021–2030, data on heating sources, database of address points of residential buildings. This made it possible to develop a typology of cities and assess the scale of the threat of poverty and energy exclusion in the future in the context of social development, as well as to identify places in Poland that require stronger action by the state and local governments to improve the quality of life. These are mainly peripheral areas in each of the 16 provinces, located far from the regional capitals, including in the central, northern and eastern parts of the country.