Abstract
Currently, Haze is one of the greatest environmental problems with serious impacts on human health in China, especially in capital region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region). To alleviate this problem, the Chinese government introduced a National Air Pollution Control Action Plan (NAPCAP) with air pollutants reduction targets by 2017. However, there is doubt whether these targets can be achieved once the plan is implemented. In this work, the effectiveness of NAPCAP is analyzed by developing models of the statistical relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and air pollutant emissions (SO2, NOx, smoke and dust), while taking into account wind and neighboring transfer impacts. The model can also identify ways of calculating the intended emission levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. The results indicate that haze concentration control targets will not be attained by following the NAPCAP, and that the amount of progress needed to meet the targets is unrealistic. A more appropriate approach to reducing air emissions is proposed, which addresses joint regional efforts.
Highlights
Haze is one of the most long-standing and important environmental problems in China today
This study aims to analyze the statistical relationship between haze concentration and air pollutant emissions based on data from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region since 2013, in order to convert the target of a 25% reduction in PM2.5 into air pollutants emission reduction targets
Air pollutants emissions data is calculated based annual amount; the model constructed in this study estimates daily PM2.5 concentrations, taking into account control variables such as wind and neighborhood effects
Summary
Haze is one of the most long-standing and important environmental problems in China today. In January 2013, for instance, haze affected most parts of northern and eastern China, encompassing an area of over 1.3 million km and affecting an estimated population of 850 million people [1]. Haze comprises atmospheric particulate matter (PM); fine particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5) is considered fatal as it can penetrate deep into the lungs, substantially increasing lung cancer per increasing 10 μg/m3 [2]. The capital region, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces in northeastern China, is the most polluted area in China. Among 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei province, 7 cities were ranked top 10 cities of China with highest annual average PM2.5 concentration during 2013 and 2014.
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