Abstract
The outbreak and persistence of COVID-19 have posed a great threat to global public health and economic development. The continuous economic deterioration has been intensified due to the continuous prevention and control measures, such as closed management. Insisting on the prevention of the epidemic or economic restart has become a dilemma for all countries. Epidemic prevention is not only the main behavior of a single country but also a common problem faced by all countries in the region. Continuous prevention measures will affect economic development, but an early restart of the economy is faced with the recurrence of the epidemic. To avoid the emergence of prisoner's dilemma in the governance of the epidemic, each country cannot make decisions with its optimization, and so it is necessary to build a regional cooperation mechanism to achieve the overall optimization of the economy and prevent the epidemic. Based on the game theory, we analyzed the behavior of countries when carrying out regional cooperation to govern the epidemic and put forward specific cooperative income distribution schemes according to the different attributes of the countries. Our results showed that in the presence of population mobility, regional cooperation to govern the epidemic can minimize the total number of infected people and maximize the overall utility of the region, which was significantly better than the overall benefits of the region in the case of non-cooperation. However, in detail, the smaller the difference of preference for preventing and controlling the epidemic between the two, the more likely it is to lead to a win-win situation. Otherwise, there will be one with damaged interests. When damaged interests appear, the appropriate distribution of cooperative income to the country with a small economic scale and low preference in preventing the epidemic is more conducive to the achievement of cooperative mechanisms and the realization of a win-win situation in the region.
Highlights
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, COVID-19 has spread to nearly 200 countries and regions worldwide, and the number of infected persons has reached about 10,000,000, making it a global public health problem
Based on the previous research, this study further studied the behavior of the countries for promoting cooperation in response to the COVID-19 in a region, and the distribution of cooperative income combined the epidemiology with two-body game theory
Considering the situation that the two countries do not cooperate in the epidemic, the two countries independently choose their optimal number of infected people
Summary
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, COVID-19 has spread to nearly 200 countries and regions worldwide, and the number of infected persons has reached about 10,000,000, making it a global public health problem. In Asia, as the main driving force of global economic growth, the value of the stock market of China fell sharply when China restarted its economy. The outbreak of COVID-19 paralyzed all kinds of economic activities and sectors in Indonesia, and the quarterly economic growth dropped by 2.41%, which was a significant decline [6]. In the United States, the spread of the epidemic has brought unprecedented impact on the stock market and economic policies. The stock market volatility in the United States is equal to or higher than that in October 1987, December 2008, and December 1929 [8]. There are 1,100 oil companies facing the risk of bankruptcy, the number of unemployed people has reached a new record, and the economic contraction may reach about 6.1%
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