How to Predict Postoperative Complications After Early Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy for Acute Cholecystitis: the Chole-Risk Score

Abstract

BackgroundEarly laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) is the gold standard treatment for patients with acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC); however, it is still related to significant postoperative complications. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and develop a preoperative score able to predict them. MethodsMulticentric retrospective analysis of 1868 patients with ACC submitted to ELC. Included patients were divided into two groups according to the presentation of increased postoperative complications defined as postoperative complications ≥ Clavien-Dindo IIIa, length of stay greater than 10 days and readmissions within 30 days of discharge. Variables that were independently predictive of increased postoperative complications were combined determining the Chole-Risk Score, which was validated through a correlation analysis. ResultsWe included 282 (15.1%) patients with postoperative complications. The multivariate analysis predictors of increased morbidity were previous percutaneous cholecystostomy (OR 2.95, p=0.001), previous abdominal surgery (OR 1.57, p=0.031) and diabetes (OR 1.62, p=0.005); Charlson Comorbidity Index >6 (OR 2.48, p=0.003), increased total bilirubin > 2 mg/dL (OR 1.88, p=0.002), dilated bile duct (OR 1.79, p=0.027), perforated gallbladder (OR 2.62, p<0.001) and severity grade (OR 1.93, p=0.001).The Chole-Risk Score was generated by grouping these variables into four categories, with scores ranging from 0 to 4. It presented a progressive increase in postoperative complications ranging from 5.8% of patients scoring 0 to 47.8% of patients scoring 4 (p<0.001). ConclusionThe Chole-Risk Score represents an intuitive tool capable of predicting postoperative complications in patients with ACC.