How to motivate people to put their money where their mouth is: What makes employees participate in electronic prediction markets?

Abstract

Although prediction markets are widely acknowledged to be as effective as other institutions predicting future events, little is known regarding their application in organizational settings. For organizations, prediction markets offer a new technical possibility to make use of the beliefs, information and knowledge of their employees for organizational decisions and forecasts. Based on survey data of 147 users in German-speaking Europe, we show that expected rewards increase user satisfaction. While contribution effort and general reciprocity in isolation have no impact on satisfaction, perceived general reciprocity in conjunction with high rewards is likely to increase user satisfaction. Our findings extend our knowledge on user behavior and emphasize the importance of incentives in prediction markets.