How to maintain the safety level with the increasing capacity of the fairway: A case study of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel

Abstract

With the continuous development of international communication and world economy, the number of vessels, together with the vessels’ size have continued to increase, which cause a dramatic increase in channel capacity and pose huge pressure to fairway management. Therefore, maintaining the safety level of the fairway as the continuous growth of the fairway capacity has become a new challenge for managers. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a framework for channel management optimization and the details are as follows: 1.In view of the complexity of the marine transportation system, traffic simulation are used to explore the relationship between influencing factors and channel risk; 2.A novel method of risk assessment based on a classic model is provided, in which a simple and reliable algorithm of calculating the number of ship domain conflicts is introduced; 3.A case study of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel is developed, in which the historical AIS data in 2018 have been collected and analyzed to ensure reasonable and reliable input parameters; 4.Based on the analysis results, the relationship between key influencing factors and channel risk is quantified, and appropriate recommendations for speed management of channel and risk assessment design of experts are proposed.