How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project

Abstract

The analysis in the chapter is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model that contains 50 countries and two regions and their bilateral trade relations, energy balances, material, macro-economic and structural data. The model is applied in the petrE project to analyze the impacts of major environmental tax reforms (ETR) and the EU ETS to reach the EU GHG reduction targets until 2020. The ETR includes a carbon tax for all non-ETS sectors and a material tax. Scenarios look at unilateral EU action and at international cooperation by all OECD countries and the major emerging economies. The chapter presents some of the modelling results. A major ETR in Europe could significantly reduce environmental pressures in Europe while creating additional jobs. Small negative GDP impacts are within the range of results of other studies. The results clearly demonstrate that only global action with substantial carbon prices may lead to an emission path still in line with the 2° target. But even if a far-reaching global climate agreement is reached later in 2010, global resource extraction will continue to increase without additional international measures.